
The Guess Project
Data analysis, visualisation, and forecasting
By registering you agree to Substack's Terms of Service, our Privacy Policy, and our Information Collection Notice

All forecasts are wrong, but some are also inadequateForecasting is difficult, partly because all models are wrong (or because we are wrong about models). And while we usually don’t know—with certainty anyway—what’s wrong, we often can know what’s not quite right. Specifically, we may not know the best model that can generate the…