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Nobel Prize laureates are an extraordinary group of people. They are the best among the best. They have changed the field and made ground-breaking contributions to it. They have influenced hundreds of students directly, and millions indirectly. This post is specifically about the…
David Ubilava
Mar 21
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Econobelographic
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All forecasts are wrong, but some are also inadequate
Forecasting is difficult, partly because all models are wrong (or because we are wrong about models). And while we usually don’t know—with certainty…
David Ubilava
Jan 28
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All forecasts are wrong, but some are also inadequate
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War in Ukraine and Disrupted Markets
This is the title of my slide deck, which I prepared for my (virtual) presentation at the 13th Annual CAES-SCAE Canadian Agri-food Policy Conference…
David Ubilava
Jan 26
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War in Ukraine and Disrupted Markets
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Is more information better for forecast accuracy? It depends!
The more data we have the more accurate are our forecasts, typically. Unless, of course, we deal with something like a random walk model, in which case…
David Ubilava
Jan 11
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Is more information better for forecast accuracy? It depends!
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Confidence in a forecast vs accuracy of a forecast
Recently, I saw a quote by Dean Williams who, in his keynote at the Financial Analysts Federation Seminar at Rockford College on 9 August 1981, said…
David Ubilava
Jan 4
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Confidence in a forecast vs accuracy of a forecast
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Authors, reviewers, editors: One head, three hats.
I have now served as a co-editor of Food Policy for over four years. This is not much editorial service by any stretch of the imagination. So, I do not…
David Ubilava
Dec 23, 2022
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Authors, reviewers, editors: One head, three hats.
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Radial plots
In my recently published article in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, in which we measure the seasonal impact of year-on-year price…
David Ubilava
Dec 20, 2022
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Radial plots
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When correlation is more than just that: Bird is a word
“The future will be the child of the past and the present, even if a rebellious child.“ This quote belongs to George Crumb—an American composer of…
David Ubilava
Dec 14, 2022
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When correlation is more than just that: Bird is a word
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The Guess Project
Data analysis, visualisation, and forecasting
By David Ubilava
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