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Gatekeepers of the top five
Recently, John List posted this on Twitter: John, who has been a Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago since 2005, is an editor of the…
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David Ubilava
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Autocorrelation as a forensic tool in time series analysis
I talked about the usefulness of correlations, specifically in forecasting, previously. There is more to it. This post is about some of that. In time…
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David Ubilava
The If's of El Nino
It’s that time of that year when climatologists predict the possible arrival of El Nino and everyone else says why it may be bad news for [enter a…
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David Ubilava
Econobelographic
Nobel Prize laureates are an extraordinary group of people. They are the best among the best. They have changed the field and made ground-breaking…
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David Ubilava
All forecasts are wrong, but some are also inadequate
Forecasting is difficult, partly because all models are wrong (or because we are wrong about models). And while we usually don’t know—with certainty…
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David Ubilava
War in Ukraine and Disrupted Markets
This is the title of my slide deck, which I prepared for my (virtual) presentation at the 13th Annual CAES-SCAE Canadian Agri-food Policy Conference…
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David Ubilava
Is more information better for forecast accuracy? It depends!
The more data we have the more accurate are our forecasts, typically. Unless, of course, we deal with something like a random walk model, in which case…
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David Ubilava
The Guess Project
The Guess Project
Data-driven and visualisation-focused newsletter on issues pertinent to economics and related fields.
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