Forecasting is difficult, partly because all models are wrong (or because we are wrong about models). And while we usually don’t know—with certainty anyway—what’s wrong, we often can know what’s not quite right. Specifically, we may not know the best model that can generate the…
This is the title of my slide deck, which I prepared for my (virtual) presentation at the 13th Annual CAES-SCAE Canadian Agri-food Policy Conference…
The more data we have the more accurate are our forecasts, typically. Unless, of course, we deal with something like a random walk model, in which case…
Recently, I saw a quote by Dean Williams who, in his keynote at the Financial Analysts Federation Seminar at Rockford College on 9 August 1981, said…
I have now served as a co-editor of Food Policy for over four years. This is not much editorial service by any stretch of the imagination. So, I do not…
In my recently published article in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, in which we measure the seasonal impact of year-on-year price…
“The future will be the child of the past and the present, even if a rebellious child.“ This quote belongs to George Crumb—an American composer of…
Every paper has a story. Not the one that is told in the paper, no. The untold one. The story that made the paper happen. This one is about my recently…
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The Guess Project