Forecasting is difficult, partly because all models are wrong (or because we are wrong about models). And while we usually don’t know—with certainty…
This is the title of my slide deck, which I prepared for my (virtual) presentation at the 13th Annual CAES-SCAE Canadian Agri-food Policy Conference…
The more data we have the more accurate are our forecasts, typically. Unless, of course, we deal with something like a random walk model, in which case…
Recently, I saw a quote by Dean Williams who, in his keynote at the Financial Analysts Federation Seminar at Rockford College on 9 August 1981, said…

December 2022

I have now served as a co-editor of Food Policy for over four years. This is not much editorial service by any stretch of the imagination. So, I do not…
In my recently published article in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, in which we measure the seasonal impact of year-on-year price…
“The future will be the child of the past and the present, even if a rebellious child.“ This quote belongs to George Crumb—an American composer of…
Every paper has a story. Not the one that is told in the paper, no. The untold one. The story that made the paper happen. This one is about my recently…
Why do forecasts fail? For two broad reasons, usually. We fail to forecast either because we don’t know stuff, or because we know it all too well. The…
Some time ago, I posted an image on Twitter that went viral. It was a wordcloud of names—a ‘namecould’. This is the tweet: Two factors contributed to…
When it comes to piecharts, I belong to the team-don't. But every rule has an exception. And this post is about one such exception. In rare and specific…