The Guess Project

Home
Archive
About
New
Forecasting is difficult, partly because all models are wrong (or because we are wrong about models). And while we usually don’t know—with certainty…
David Ubilava
This is the title of my slide deck, which I prepared for my (virtual) presentation at the 13th Annual CAES-SCAE Canadian Agri-food Policy Conference…
David Ubilava
The more data we have the more accurate are our forecasts, typically. Unless, of course, we deal with something like a random walk model, in which case…
David Ubilava
Recently, I saw a quote by Dean Williams who, in his keynote at the Financial Analysts Federation Seminar at Rockford College on 9 August 1981, said…
David Ubilava

December 2022

I have now served as a co-editor of Food Policy for over four years. This is not much editorial service by any stretch of the imagination. So, I do not…
David Ubilava
In my recently published article in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, in which we measure the seasonal impact of year-on-year price…
David Ubilava
“The future will be the child of the past and the present, even if a rebellious child.“ This quote belongs to George Crumb—an American composer of…
David Ubilava
Every paper has a story. Not the one that is told in the paper, no. The untold one. The story that made the paper happen. This one is about my recently…
David Ubilava
Why do forecasts fail? For two broad reasons, usually. We fail to forecast either because we don’t know stuff, or because we know it all too well. The…
David Ubilava
Some time ago, I posted an image on Twitter that went viral. It was a wordcloud of names—a ‘namecould’. This is the tweet: Two factors contributed to…
David Ubilava
When it comes to piecharts, I belong to the team-don't. But every rule has an exception. And this post is about one such exception. In rare and specific…
David Ubilava
© 2023 David Ubilava
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing