Forecasting is mostly difficult, but sometimes just not possible
theguessproject.substack.com
Why do forecasts fail? For two broad reasons, usually. We fail to forecast either because we don’t know stuff, or because we know it all too well. The latter sounds counterintuitive. But the issue lies in our ability to influence the outcome of the variable because we were able to forecast it with reasonable accuracy. A self-fulfilling prophecy of the sort.
Forecasting is mostly difficult, but sometimes just not possible
Forecasting is mostly difficult, but…
Forecasting is mostly difficult, but sometimes just not possible
Why do forecasts fail? For two broad reasons, usually. We fail to forecast either because we don’t know stuff, or because we know it all too well. The latter sounds counterintuitive. But the issue lies in our ability to influence the outcome of the variable because we were able to forecast it with reasonable accuracy. A self-fulfilling prophecy of the sort.