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Autocorrelation as a forensic tool in time series analysis
I talked about the usefulness of correlations, specifically in forecasting, previously. There is more to it. This post is about some of that. In time…
Apr 22
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David Ubilava
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The If's of El Nino
It’s that time of that year when climatologists predict the possible arrival of El Nino and everyone else says why it may be bad news for [enter a…
Apr 13
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David Ubilava
1
March 2023
Econobelographic
Nobel Prize laureates are an extraordinary group of people. They are the best among the best. They have changed the field and made ground-breaking…
Mar 21
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David Ubilava
January 2023
All forecasts are wrong, but some are also inadequate
Forecasting is difficult, partly because all models are wrong (or because we are wrong about models). And while we usually don’t know—with certainty…
Jan 28
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David Ubilava
War in Ukraine and Disrupted Markets
This is the title of my slide deck, which I prepared for my (virtual) presentation at the 13th Annual CAES-SCAE Canadian Agri-food Policy Conference…
Jan 26
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David Ubilava
Is more information better for forecast accuracy? It depends!
The more data we have the more accurate are our forecasts, typically. Unless, of course, we deal with something like a random walk model, in which case…
Jan 11
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David Ubilava
Confidence in a forecast vs accuracy of a forecast
Recently, I saw a quote by Dean Williams who, in his keynote at the Financial Analysts Federation Seminar at Rockford College on 9 August 1981, said…
Jan 4
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David Ubilava
December 2022
Authors, reviewers, editors: One head, three hats.
I have now served as a co-editor of Food Policy for over four years. This is not much editorial service by any stretch of the imagination. So, I do not…
Dec 23, 2022
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David Ubilava
Radial plots
In my recently published article in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, in which we measure the seasonal impact of year-on-year price…
Dec 20, 2022
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David Ubilava
When correlation is more than just that: Bird is a word
“The future will be the child of the past and the present, even if a rebellious child.“ This quote belongs to George Crumb—an American composer of…
Dec 14, 2022
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David Ubilava
Agrarian violence: A background story
Every paper has a story. Not the one that is told in the paper, no. The untold one. The story that made the paper happen. This one is about my recently…
Dec 12, 2022
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David Ubilava
Forecasting is mostly difficult, but sometimes just not possible
Why do forecasts fail? For two broad reasons, usually. We fail to forecast either because we don’t know stuff, or because we know it all too well. The…
Dec 10, 2022
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David Ubilava
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